Welcome back to another Bethoud Weather Nerd column! I think most of us wish we could see into the future a little sometimes, especially during 2020, but there is one particular weather subject that will get Coloradans predicting like no other. Every year as the festive season approaches we like to discuss and place our bets on how much snow we’ll see covering our homes. This year more than ever many of us would welcome some moisture to the state as, for the first time in eight years, 100% of Colorado is under drought or abnormally dry conditions thanks to a hot, dry summer.

Lots of people have their own trusted source for predicted snow levels, whether that’s watching the clouds or counting cricket chirps (yes that’s a real method some use), but most will look to either the historic Farmers’ Almanac or the governments National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for their data. Before we get into this year’s forecasts from these trusted top two organizations, let’s take a little look at how they arrive at their long-range predictions in the first place.

What a difference a day makes March 13 vs. 14, 2019. Which will we have more of this winter?

The Farmers’ Almanac is an annual American publication that has been continuously in print since 1818 and boasts a longer range forecast than any other source available, with 16 months of weather predictions for the continental United States in each edition. Millions of Americans have trusted the Almanac over the years, and not just for planting their crops, but also for planning weddings and holidays too. Lots of longtime Almanac followers claim that their forecasts are 80% to 85% accurate but what methods do the publication have to offer these predictions?

The Farmers’ Almanac denies using any sort of computer equipment or weather lore to come up with its long-range forecasts but instead uses an equation developed back in 1818 by David Young, the Almanac’s first editor. The formula is said to take into consideration things such as tidal actions of the moon, sunspot activity and position of the planets. The equation is such a closely guarded secret that only one person knows it at a time, and that person is even given a pseudonym, Caleb Weatherbee. A name passed down to each forecaster to protect their identity.

On the other side of the coin, the NOAA prefers to make its long-term weather predictions using a much more digital and science-based approach instead. The government agency relies mainly on polar-orbiting satellites that measure radiation emitted by the Earth and atmosphere all-around the globe twice per day. This data is then fed into computer forecasting software which helps to predict seasonal weather patterns. They don’t keep their methods secret or have pseudonyms for forecasters (although I’m sure they could probably ask for one if they wanted).

So what do these two organizations predict for the winter of 2020-21 in Colorado?

Just to keep it all a little interesting they slightly disagree with each other this year. On one side the Farmers’ Almanac is predicting above-normal snowfall in northern portions of Colorado so Berthoud could see more than its usual share of the white stuff. They go on to say,

“Snowfall will be above normal in most places with the snowiest periods in mid-November, early and late December, mid-and late January, mid-to-late February, and early March.”

The NOAA, on the other hand, released their annual winter outlook in collaboration with the agency’s Climate Prediction Center on Oct. 15. In it, they forecast a drier-than-average winter season with warmer than normal temperatures for the centennial state. A pretty different outlook to the Almanac.

Most people will often choose to stick with their own trusted source for their weather forecast, even if that is cricket chirp counting, but what does your Berthoud Weather Nerd forecast for this winter? You may call it the easy way out, but I’m actually making my prediction somewhere in the middle of the Farmers’ Almanac and the NOAA. I do think we will see slightly warmer temperatures than normal this season, but I also think Berthoud will be having more than our normal share of short, sharp snowstorms to break it up. I am holding on to the hope that our mountains and plains will get some much-needed moisture.

Whether you’re using the latest weather science and tech or 200-year-old equations, predicting nature’s daily and seasonal patterns will always be a tough job filled with uncertainty. The only thing that we can be sure of here in Berthoud is that our weather will never be boring and any snow we do see this year will be very welcome.