West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Highs 75 to 82. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 69. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny early in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 75 to 82. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 83. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 62 to 69. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 83. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Windy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 75 to 81 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 75 to 81 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Highs 79 to 84. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 65. East winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Highs 79 to 84. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers early in the morning, then isolated showers late in the morning. Highs 51 to 70. East winds 10 to 30 mph decreasing to up to 30 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 55 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. Southeast winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers early in the morning, then isolated showers late in the morning. Highs 51 to 70. Southeast winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Windy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 75 to 81 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 75 to 81 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 70 to 77. East winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 62. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 70 to 77. Light winds.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 73 to 79. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 59 to 71. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 73 to 79. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Strong and gusty trade winds will persist into Friday before gradually easing over the weekend and into early next week as an upper disturbance approaches from the northwest. Mostly dry and stable conditions will continue for most areas through Friday, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas overnight and during the morning hours. Increasing moisture and instability associated with the upper disturbance, combined with light to moderate east-southeast winds, will lead to higher rain chances this weekend through early next week, including leeward locations where afternoon sea breezes develop.

Discussion

Mostly dry and stable conditions will persist for most areas through Friday as a strong low- to mid-level ridge remains anchored north of the islands. This setup will maintain breezy to windy trade winds, though slightly weaker than in recent days. Brief showers will favor windward and mauka areas, primarily overnight and into the morning hours, as shallow pockets of moisture move through beneath a strong subsidence inversion. The exception has been over windward sections of the Big Island overnight, where a persistent band of low-level moisture is supporting scattered to numerous showers (rainfall rates up to a quarter of an inch per hour). A weak mid- to upper-level trough moving over the eastern end of the state later tonight through Friday will lead to the weak and elevated inversion lingering, with the rainfall chances remaining up.
A transition period is expected over the weekend as a weakness develops in the ridge to the north in response to an approaching upper trough that will eventually close off northwest of the state. The low-level flow will respond by weakening and shifting out of the east-southeast. Model guidance remains in decent agreement, indicating this pattern will persist through early next week, with upper heights gradually lowering as the upper low drifts eastward toward the area. As the mean low- to mid-level flow remains steady out of the southeast, moisture will be drawn northward into the region. This added moisture, combined with increasing instability, will support higher rainfall chances statewide, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas overnight and into the morning hours, then shifting to leeward locations each afternoon where sea breezes develop.

Aviation

Breezy to strong trade winds will continue today before declining slightly Friday. VFR conditions are expected but periods of MVFR conditions in ceilings and visibility mainly over Maui and the Big Island are possible through the morning.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET is expected to continue through the forecast period, especially over Maui county and the Big Island.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is currently in effect for north and east facing slopes of the Big Island. Conditions are expected to improve through the morning but may need to be reissued this afternoon.

Marine

Strong high pressure north of the Hawaiian Islands will drift slowly eastward this week allowing strong winds to decrease in strength from Friday on into the weekend. The Small Craft Advisory was extended in time for most for Coastal Waters through Friday afternoon due to strong trades and elevated seas. A trough will approach the islands from the northwest from today to Friday, causing the trade winds to slowly decrease and veer from the east to southeast direction by Friday. Moderate to fresh east to east- southeast winds will likely persist into early next week.
The current moderate size, medium to long period north northwest (330 degree) swell reached its peak this afternoon, and will decline today. A similar sized west northwest (300-320 degree) swell will move into the region by tonight and peak by Friday near High Surf Advisory levels. The next northwest (310-320 degree) swell will arrive by Tuesday and boost surf heights along north and west facing shores to just below advisory thresholds from late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy just below advisory thresholds due to strong trade winds over and upstream of the islands through Friday before declining into the weekend as trade winds decrease.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Leeward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov