Improved Atmospheric River forecasts assist West Coast water, emergency managers

California’s weather swings between wet and dry periods so it’s critical for the state to have accurate forecasts so they can employ effective water management strategies.

To improve these forecasts and help residents of not just California, but several West Coast states, representatives with the 403rd Operations Group and 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, assigned to the 403rd Wing at Keesler Air Force Base, Mississippi, attended the Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations workshop Aug. 5-9 in La Jolla, California.

Reservists met with key members from the Army Corp of Engineers, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, NOAA, and the National Weather Service to discuss the role the Hurricane Hunters play in improving atmospheric river forecasts, which are crucial for managing California's water reservoirs, supporting agriculture, and protecting lives and property, said Lt. Col. Steve Burton, 403rd Operations Group deputy commander.

These organizations are at the forefront of research and operational management of water resources in California, a state that relies heavily on precise weather forecasts to manage its reservoirs.

“FIRO drives the process changes for how water reservoirs are managed, so these reservoir managers are the end users of the forecasts that we improve,” said Maj. Chris Dyke, Air Force Reserve Command evaluator aerial reconnaissance weather officer.

The 53rd WRS is renowned for its daring missions into hurricanes, but their work extends beyond tropical storms. During the winter months, they shift their focus to atmospheric rivers—narrow corridors of concentrated moisture that can bring intense rainfall and cause significant flooding, particularly in the western United States. The unit began flying the Atmospheric Rivers missions in 2016, 2018 and 2019 as part of a research-based project, with flights added each year, until it became integrated into the National Winter Season Operations Plan in 2020.

“The data collected by these airborne missions is invaluable for improving the accuracy of weather models, especially in predicting the timing, intensity, and impact of these atmospheric rivers,” said Dyke.

“When these atmospheric rivers come on shore, they provide both an opportunity and a threat,” said Dyke. “Our forecasts help them make informed decisions about reservoir operations, which is critical for water supply management, agricultural planning, and flood prevention.”

California's agricultural sector and urban areas are highly dependent on effective water management, said Burton.

“The state's reservoirs are a lifeline, storing water for millions of people and agricultural lands,” said Burton, adding that the 80,000 farms and ranches in the state generate 58 billion in revenue.

Dyke added that improved forecasts have provided emergency managers more notice, about three extra days to prepare.

“Improved forecast accuracy enabled emergency managers to prepare for more than 600 swift water rescues during one atmospheric river event a few years ago,” said Dyke.

“The conference provided the 53rd WRS the opportunity to inform their agency partners about their mission, its impact, and then get feedback on how they can adjust the way they operate to improve the utilization of weather data,” said Dyke. “This conference marks a significant step forward in the ongoing efforts to improve atmospheric river forecasts and water management strategies.

By enhancing the collaboration between airborne weather reconnaissance and ground-based operations, the agencies involved are working towards a common goal: to protect communities, support agriculture, and ensure the sustainable management of California’s and other West Coast state’s water resources.